Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Clichés of socialism, no. 23

If free enterprise really works, why the Great Depression?

"This government promotion of cheap money during and after World War I led at the time to private speculation and investment of resources in unsound business ventures, just as similar policies are doing now... With government pumping forth the money, all businessmen are inclined to become borrowers, until bankers eventually find themselves overloaned on bad risks."

Sounds like it was written in the last few years doesn't it? It wasn't. Dr. Paul Poirot published this essay 40 years ago. I am constantly amazed as to what lengths people will go to in order to criticize the free market. It never fails though that behind every so called "market failure" we find just another needless (and usually unconstitutional) government policy and the law of unintended consequences.

What is even more unsettling is the lack of generational knowledge being passed down from parent to child in Western Civilization. We have, as a nation, confronted this exaggerated boom and bust cycle numerous times since the Great Depression. Each of them caused by the same sequence of events. Easy credit from the Fed, increased borrowing and unsound investments by private business and individuals, some sort of panic that causes a contraction of that credit and finally a major bust. The last boom and bust we experienced was further complicated by Congress meddling directly in the economy (not content to simply use their pawns at the Fed) by forcing banks to make home loans to individuals who were not credit worthy. Who knew that forcing banks to liberally lend money for home loans, thus increasing the demand for homes, would lead to an astronomical increase in the value of real estate? Similarly, who could have predicted that those same borrowers, once deemed to be to much of a credit risk by the banks, would default on their loans under pressure, thus bringing down the whole house of cards? These are of course rhetorical questions. The answer is anybody with half a brain could have seen these things coming.

The oldest daughter of my oldest friend was complaining on facebook the other day that she just couldn't understand her history homework and didn't see the point. Many of her friends echoed that sentiment. 'You don't need all that knowledge of history in real life,' they told her. 'It won't matter at all once you graduate.' I beg to differ and the current financial mess our nation is in is the reason why. I know to this young lady I'm just an old man, like her dad. However, I hope she comes to realize, and soon, that if her generation doesn't learn from the mistakes of the past she, and her children, will repeat the same wealth eating, family destroying, heart breaking boom and bust cycle that we are going through right now. Unfortunately, next time, I fear it will be much worse.

Friday, October 29, 2010

Fiscal crisis in the several states and how to fix it.

Here is a link to an in depth analysis of the finances of the fifty states. It looks at potential short term and long term problems. The usual suspects appear on the "troubled" lists; California, New Jersey, Alaska and Kentucky while the other usual suspects appear on the "better off" lists; Tennessee, Virginia, Florida and Texas.

The report does conclude that corporate and personal income taxes are not an effective means of maintaining tax receipt levels in an economic downturn. My preferred method of taxation (consumption taxes) came out as a big winner. Long and short of it all; states need to control their spending during flush times and make early and regular contributions to rainy day funds to make up the difference during hard times. States should also contribute more to their employees pension and retiree health care plans and not count on outlandish expected rates of return (8%? Are you kidding me?) to make up the difference.

I would say that a better long term solution is to turn away from "defined benefit" pension plans for newly hired state workers and instead move them into "defined contribution" 401K style plans. Also, states pension plans should base retiree benefits not upon the last few years of income but rather on an average of career earnings. Finally, state retirees should not be able to begin receiving PENSION benefits until they reach a set retirement age instead of the current policy of receiving benefits at retirement after a certain number of years service. Newer employees who would be hired under 401K style plans could retire... well... whenever they want. It's their money.

http://www.td.com/economics/special/cs1010_fiscal_crisis.pdf